Challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecasts in user applications

Autor(es)

Coelho, Caio A. S. ^[1] ; Costa, Simone M. S. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, CPTEC, Cachoeira Paulista - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo de Revisão
• Fonte: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability; v. 2, n. 5-6, p. 317-325, DEC 2010.
• Citações Web of Science: 20

Resumo

This review discusses the challenges for integrating seasonal climate forecast information in user applications within the design of a simplified end-to-end forecasting system framework. Seasonal climate forecasts are operationally produced at various climate prediction centers around the world. However, these forecasts are rarely objectively integrated in application models to help the end user decision-making process, in spite of recent advances demonstrated through pilot projects in health, agricultural and water resources applications. An example of crop yield forecast produced as part of the EUROBRISA multi-institutional initiative is presented for illustrating some of the challenges. The challenges for moving toward a more objective use of seasonal climate forecasts to help support decision making involve more efficient interaction among climate scientists, system scientists and decision makers, with the end user driving the skill assessment of the entire end-to-end forecasting system through real world forecast applications. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 06/02497-6 - Um sistema integrado de previsoes climaticas para a america do sul.
• Beneficiário: Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Jovens Pesquisadores
• Processo FAPESP: 05/05210-7 - Um sistema integrado de previsões climáticas para América do Sul
• Beneficiário: Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Jovens Pesquisadores