Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters

Autor(es)

Yang, Hyun Mo ^[1] ; Boldrini, Jose Luiz ^[1] ; Fassoni, Artur Cesar ^{[1, 2]} ; Souza Freitas, Luiz Fernando ^[1] ; Gomez, Miller Ceron ^[1] ; Barboza de Lima, Karla Katerine ^[1] ; Andrade, Valmir Roberto ^[3] ; Ribas Freitas, Andre Ricardo ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas UNICAMP, Inst Matemat & Comp Cient IMECC, Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Itajuba UNIFEI, IMC, Itajuba, MG - Brazil

^[3] Superintendencia Controle Endemias SUCEN, Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[4] Coordenadoria Vigilancia Sanitaria COVISA, Campinas, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PLoS One; v. 11, n. 3 MAR 24 2016.
• Citações Web of Science: 5

Resumo

Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 09/15098-0 - Avaliando controle de epidemias utilizando modelos matemáticos e computacionais
• Beneficiário: Hyun Mo Yang
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático