Local risk perception enhances epidemic control

Autor(es)

Herrera-Diestra, Jose L. ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Estadual Paulista, IFT, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] ICTP South Amer Inst Fundamental Res, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Univ Los Andes, Fac Ingn, CeSiMo, Merida - Venezuela

^[4] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 - USA

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PLoS One; v. 14, n. 12 DEC 3 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual willingness to take precautions may be influenced by global factors, such as news media, or local factors, such as infected family members or friends. Here, we compare three modes of epidemiological decision-making in the midst of a growing outbreak using network-based mathematical models that capture plausible heterogeneity in human contact patterns. Individuals decide whether to adopt a recommended intervention based on overall disease prevalence, the proportion of social contacts infected, or the number of social contacts infected. While all strategies can substantially mitigate transmission, vaccinating (or self isolating) based on the number of infected acquaintances is expected to prevent the most infections while requiring the fewest intervention resources. Unlike the other strategies, it has a substantial herd effect, providing indirect protection to a large fraction of the population. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 17/00344-2 - Aproximação de redes complexas para análise de séries temporais
• Beneficiário: Jose Luis Herrera Diestra
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 16/01343-7 - ICTP Instituto Sul-Americano para Física Fundamental: um centro regional para física teórica
• Beneficiário: Nathan Jacob Berkovits
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Projetos Especiais