Local risk perception enhances epidemic control

Author(s)

Herrera-Diestra, Jose L. ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^[4]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Paulista, IFT, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] ICTP South Amer Inst Fundamental Res, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Univ Los Andes, Fac Ingn, CeSiMo, Merida - Venezuela

^[4] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 - USA

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PLoS One; v. 14, n. 12 DEC 3 2019.
• Web of Science Citations: 1

Abstract

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual willingness to take precautions may be influenced by global factors, such as news media, or local factors, such as infected family members or friends. Here, we compare three modes of epidemiological decision-making in the midst of a growing outbreak using network-based mathematical models that capture plausible heterogeneity in human contact patterns. Individuals decide whether to adopt a recommended intervention based on overall disease prevalence, the proportion of social contacts infected, or the number of social contacts infected. While all strategies can substantially mitigate transmission, vaccinating (or self isolating) based on the number of infected acquaintances is expected to prevent the most infections while requiring the fewest intervention resources. Unlike the other strategies, it has a substantial herd effect, providing indirect protection to a large fraction of the population. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 17/00344-2 - Approaching complex networks for time series analysis
• Grantee: Jose Luis Herrera Diestra
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 16/01343-7 - ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research: a regional center for theoretical physics
• Grantee: Nathan Jacob Berkovits
• Support Opportunities: Special Projects