The influence of immune individuals in disease spread evaluated by cellular automaton and genetic algorithm

Autor(es)

Monteiro, L. H. A. ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Gandini, D. M. ^[2] ; Schimit, P. H. T. ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Escola Politecn, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Presbiteriana Mackenzie, PPGEEC, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[3] Univ Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Escola Engn, Rua Consolacao 896, BR-01302907 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[4] Univ Nove Julho, PPGI, Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE; v. 196, NOV 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Background and objective: One of the main goals of epidemiological studies is to build models capable of forecasting the prevalence of a contagious disease, in order to propose public health policies for combating its propagation. Here, the aim is to evaluate the influence of immune individuals in the processes of contagion and recovery from varicella. This influence is usually neglected. Methods: An epidemic model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is introduced. By using a genetic algorithm, the values of three parameters of this model are determined from data of prevalence of varicella in Belgium and Italy, in a pre-vaccination period. Results: This methodology can predict the varicella prevalence (with average relative error of 2% - 4%) in these two European countries. Belgium data can be explained by ignoring the role of immune individuals in the infection propagation; however, Italy data can be explained by considering contagion exclusively mediated by immune individuals. Conclusions: The role of immune individuals should be accurately delineated in investigations on the dynamics of disease propagation. In addition, the proposed methodology can be adapted for evaluating, for instance, the role of asymptomatic carriers in the novel coronavirus spread. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 17/50393-0 - Simulation modeling of vector borne diseases with coarse and fine scale partial information
• Beneficiário: Pedro Henrique Triguis Schimit
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 17/12671-8 - Laboratório de dinâmicas populacionais
• Beneficiário: Pedro Henrique Triguis Schimit
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular