A snapshot of a pandemic The interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil

Autor(es)

Ferreira, Cleudia P. ^[1] ; Marcondes, Diego ^[2] ; Melo, Mariana P. ^[3] ; Oliva, Sergio M. ^[2] ; Peixoto, Cleudia M. ^[2] ; Peixoto, Pedro S. ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ, Inst Biosci, UNESP, BR-18618689 Botucatu, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Appl Math, Inst Math & Stat, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Basic & Environm Sci, Engn Sch Lorena, BR-12602810 Lorena - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PATTERNS; v. 2, n. 10 OCT 8 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, governments implemented social distancing, attempting to block the virus spread within territories. While it is well accepted that social isolation plays a role in epidemic control, the precise connections between mobility data indicators and epidemic dynamics are still a challenge. In this work, we investigate the dependency between a social isolation index and epidemiological metrics for several Brazilian cities. Classic statistical methods are employed to support the findings. As a first, initially surprising, result, we illustrate how there seems to be no apparent functional relationship between social isolation data and later effects on disease incidence. However, further investigations identified two regimes of successful employment of social isolation: as a preventive measure or as a remedy, albeit remedy measures require greater social isolation and bring higher burden to health systems. Additionally, we exhibit cases of successful strategies involving lockdowns and an indicator-based mobility restriction plan. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 19/22157-5 - Modelagem e controle de doenças transmitidas por vetores: dengue e malária
• Beneficiário: Cláudia Pio Ferreira
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 16/18445-7 - Métodos numéricos para a nova geração de modelos de previsão de tempo e clima
• Beneficiário: Pedro da Silva Peixoto
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Jovens Pesquisadores