The Relationship between Ideology and COVID-19 Deaths: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know

Autor(es)

Lorena Barberia ^[1] ; Natália de Paula Moreira ^[2] ; Rebeca de Jesus Carvalho ^[3] ; Maria Leticia Claro Oliveira ^[4] ; Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa ^[5] ; Marcela Zamudio ^[6]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[2] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[3] Fundação Getúlio Vargas. São Paulo School of Business Administration - Brasil

^[4] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[5] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[6] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Brazilian Political Science Review; v. 16, n. 3 2022-10-24.

Resumo

Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 21/08772-9 - A resposta à pandemia de COVID-19: o papel da comunicação, do direito sanitário e das políticas públicas para os 3 Rs (recuperação, renovação e resiliência) de uma sociedade inclusiva
• Beneficiário: Lorena Guadalupe Barberia
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 16/13199-8 - A Congruência entre Políticas Públicas e Preferências
• Beneficiário: Natália de Paula Moreira
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado