The Relationship between Ideology and COVID-19 Deaths: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know

Author(s)

Lorena Barberia ^[1] ; Natália de Paula Moreira ^[2] ; Rebeca de Jesus Carvalho ^[3] ; Maria Leticia Claro Oliveira ^[4] ; Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa ^[5] ; Marcela Zamudio ^[6]

Affiliation

^[1] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[2] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[3] Fundação Getúlio Vargas. São Paulo School of Business Administration - Brasil

^[4] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[5] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

^[6] Universidade de São Paulo. Department of Political Science - Brasil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Brazilian Political Science Review; v. 16, n. 3 2022-10-24.

Abstract

Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 21/08772-9 - The COVID-19 pandemic response: the role of communication, health law, and public policy for the 3 Rs (recovery, renewal and resilience) of an inclusive society
• Grantee: Lorena Guadalupe Barberia
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• FAPESP's process: 16/13199-8 - Preferences and Public Policy Congruence
• Grantee: Natália de Paula Moreira
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate