Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil

Autor(es)

Guzman, Diego A. ; Mohor, Guilherme S. ; Mendiondo, Eduardo M.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: URBAN WATER JOURNAL; v. N/A, p. 15-pg., 2022-04-01.

Resumo

Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 14/15080-2 - Seguros hídricos como mecanismos de adaptação às mudanças do solo e do clima para otimizar a outorga do uso da água sob condições de transposição de vazões
• Beneficiário: Guilherme Samprogna Mohor
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Mestrado