Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks

Autor(es)

Silva, Jose Carlos M. ; Silva, Diogo H. ; Rodrigues, Francisco A. ; Ferreira, Silvio C.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PHYSICAL REVIEW E; v. 106, n. 3, p. 9-pg., 2022-09-22.

Resumo

The role of waning immunity in basic epidemic models on networks has been undervalued while being noticeably fundamental for real epidemic outbreaks. One central question is which mean-field approach is more accurate in describing the epidemic dynamics. We tackled this problem considering the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model on networks. Two pairwise mean-field theories, one based on recurrent dynamical message-passing (rDMP) theory and the other on the pair quenched mean-field (PQMF) theory, are compared with extensive stochastic simulations on large networks of different levels of heterogeneity. For waning immunity times longer than or comparable with the recovering time, rDMP outperforms PQMF theory on power-law networks with degree distribution P(k) similar to k(-gamma). In particular, for gamma > 3, the epidemic threshold observed in simulations is finite, in qualitative agreement with rDMP, while PQMF leads to an asymptotically null threshold. The critical epidemic prevalence for gamma > 3 is localized in a finite set of vertices in the case of the PQMF theory. In contrast, the localization happens in a subextensive fraction of the network in rDMP theory. Simulations, however, indicate that localization patterns of the actual epidemic lay between the two mean-field theories, and improved theoretical approaches are necessary to understanding the SIRS dynamics. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 21/00369-0 - Localização em processos de espalhamento em redes complexas
• Beneficiário: Diogo Henrique da Silva
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
• Processo FAPESP: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Centro de Ciências Matemáticas Aplicadas à Indústria
• Beneficiário: Francisco Louzada Neto
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs
• Processo FAPESP: 19/23293-0 - Predição e inferência em sistemas complexos
• Beneficiário: Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular