Species distribution modeling for disease ecology: A multi-scale case study for schistosomiasis host snails in Brazil

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Singleton, Alyson L. ; Glidden, Caroline K. ; Chamberlin, Andrew J. ; Tuan, Roseli ; Palasio, Raquel G. S. ; Pinter, Adriano ; Caldeira, Roberta L. ; Mendonc, Cristiane L. F. ; Carvalho, Omar S. ; Monteiro, Miguel V. ; Athni, Tejas S. ; Sokolow, Susanne H. ; Mordecai, Erin A. ; De Leo, Giulio A.

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH; v. 4, n. 8, p. 28-pg., 2024-08-02.

Resumo

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly popular tools for profiling disease risk in ecology, particularly for infectious diseases of public health importance that include an obligate non-human host in their transmission cycle. SDMs can create high-resolution maps of host distribution across geographical scales, reflecting baseline risk of disease. However, as SDM computational methods have rapidly expanded, there are many outstanding methodological questions. Here we address key questions about SDM application, using schistosomiasis risk in Brazil as a case study. Schistosomiasis is transmitted to humans through contact with the free-living infectious stage of Schistosoma spp. parasites released from freshwater snails, the parasite's obligate intermediate hosts. In this study, we compared snail SDM performance across machine learning (ML) approaches (MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Boosted Regression Trees), geographic extents (national, regional, and state), types of presence data (expert-collected and publicly-available), and snail species (Biom- phalaria glabrata, B. straminea, and B. tenagophila). We used high-resolution (1km) climate, hydrology, land-use/land-cover (LULC), and soil property data to describe the snails' ecological niche and evaluated models on multiple criteria. Although all ML approaches produced comparable spatially cross-validated performance metrics, their suitability maps showed major qualitative differences that required validation based on local expert knowledge. Additionally, our findings revealed varying importance of LULC and bioclimatic variables for different snail species at different spatial scales. Finally, we found that models using publicly-available data predicted snail distribution with comparable AUC values to models using expert-collected data. This work serves as an instructional guide to SDM methods that can be applied to a range of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. In addition, it advances our understanding of the relevant environment and bioclimatic determinants of schistosomiasis risk in Brazil. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 19/23593-3 - Mapeamento de risco integrado e o controle de caramujos em suporte à eliminação da esquistossomose no Brasil e Costa do Marfim sob as mudanças climáticas futuras
• Beneficiário: Adriano Pinter dos Santos
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 21/10212-1 - "Modelagem espaço-temporal de zika e chikungunya no Brasil considerando três diferentes escalas geográficas e mudanças de climáticas"
• Beneficiário: Raquel Gardini Sanches Palasio
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado