Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO2 fertilization and seasonality

Autor(es)

Lapola, David M. ^{[1, 2]} ; Oyama, Marcos D. ^[3] ; Nobre, Carlos A. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, BR-12630970 Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil

^[2] Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modeling, Hamburg - Germany

^[3] Inst Aeronaut & Espaco, Div Ciencias Atmosfer, BR-12228904 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES; v. 23, JUL 3 2009.
• Citações Web of Science: 58

Resumo

Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. In this paper we use a potential vegetation model (CPTEC-PVM2) to analyze biome distribution in tropical South America under a range of climate projections and a range of estimates about the effects of increased atmospheric CO2. We show that if the CO2 ``fertilization effect'' indeed takes place and is maintained in the long term in tropical forests, then it will avoid biome shifts in Amazonia in most of the climate scenarios, even if the effect of CO2 fertilization is halved. However, if CO2 fertilization does not play any important role on tropical forests in the future or if dry season is longer than 4 months (projected by 2/14 GCMs), then there is replacement of large portions of Amazonia by tropical savanna. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 04/12235-3 - Um modelo de vegetação potencial incluindo ciclo do carbono e fogo natural: consequências das mudanças climáticas nos biomas globais
• Beneficiário: David Montenegro Lapola
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Mestrado