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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil

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Autor(es):
Tavares, Priscila da Silva [1] ; Giarolla, Angelica [2] ; Chou, Sin Chan [1] ; de Paula Silva, Adan Juliano [1] ; Lyra, Andre de Arruda [1]
Número total de Autores: 5
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Ctr Weather Forecasts & Climate Studies CPTEC INP, Rod Pres Dutra Km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil
[2] Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Earth Syst Sci Ctr CCST, Ave Astronautas 1758, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 2
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: Regional Environmental Change; v. 18, n. 3, p. 873-883, MAR 2018.
Citações Web of Science: 5
Resumo

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of global mean temperature rises are worrisome for coffee crop due to the intolerance of the Arabica species to high air temperature variations. The crop has a large participation in the Brazilian trade balance; therefore, in this study, the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) were assessed in the areas of Southeast Brazil in future climate change scenarios. Simulations of the Eta Regional Climate Model at 5-km resolution used in this study were generated from a second dynamic downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model runs. The projections adopted two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considered the period 2011-2100. The projections indicated a large reduction of about 20 to 60% of the areas currently suitable for coffee cultivation in Southeast Brazil. In the RCP8.5 scenario, at the end of century, coffee cultivation is suitable only in elevated mountain areas, which would pose difficulties to farming management due to the operation of agricultural machinery in mountain areas. In addition, coffee cultivation in these regions could produce environmental impacts in the remnant Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Areas of high climatic risk increase due to temperature increase. The projections showed that the potential yield could be reduced by about 25% by the end of the twenty-first century. These results of potential coffee yield in the future climate indicate a need for adaptation studies of Arabica coffee cultivation. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 14/00192-0 - Impactos das mudanças climáticas na produtividade do cafeeiro em áreas do sudeste do brasil
Beneficiário:Priscila da Silva Tavares
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado