Dengue outbreaks: unpredictable incidence time series

Autor(es)

Gabriel, A. F. B. ^[1] ; Alencar, A. P. ^[2] ; Miraglia, S. G. E. K. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Fed Sao Paulo UNIFESP, Lab Econ Saude & Poluicao Ambientail, ICAQF, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Matemat & Estat, Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION; v. 147, 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Dengue fever is a disease with increasing incidence, now occurring in some regions which were not previously affected. Ribeirao Preto and Sao Paulo, municipalities in Sao Paulo state, Brazil, have been highlighted due to the high dengue incidences especially after 2009 and 2013. Therefore, the current study aims to analyse the temporal behaviour of dengue cases in the both municipalities and forecast the number of disease cases in the out-of-sample period, using time series models, especially SARIMA model. We fitted SARIMA models, which satisfactorily meet the dengue incidence data collected in the municipalities of Ribeirao Preto and Sao Paulo. However, the out-of-sample forecast confidence intervals are very wide and this fact is usually omitted in several papers. Despite the high variability, health services can use these models in order to anticipate disease scenarios, however, one should interpret with prudence since the magnitude of the epidemic may be underestimated. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 18/04654-9 - Séries temporais, ondaletas e dados de alta dimensão
• Beneficiário: Pedro Alberto Morettin
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático