Busca avançada
Ano de início
Entree
(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Dengue outbreaks: unpredictable incidence time series

Texto completo
Autor(es):
Gabriel, A. F. B. [1] ; Alencar, A. P. [2] ; Miraglia, S. G. E. K. [1]
Número total de Autores: 3
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Fed Sao Paulo UNIFESP, Lab Econ Saude & Poluicao Ambientail, ICAQF, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Matemat & Estat, Sao Paulo - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 2
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION; v. 147, 2019.
Citações Web of Science: 1
Resumo

Dengue fever is a disease with increasing incidence, now occurring in some regions which were not previously affected. Ribeirao Preto and Sao Paulo, municipalities in Sao Paulo state, Brazil, have been highlighted due to the high dengue incidences especially after 2009 and 2013. Therefore, the current study aims to analyse the temporal behaviour of dengue cases in the both municipalities and forecast the number of disease cases in the out-of-sample period, using time series models, especially SARIMA model. We fitted SARIMA models, which satisfactorily meet the dengue incidence data collected in the municipalities of Ribeirao Preto and Sao Paulo. However, the out-of-sample forecast confidence intervals are very wide and this fact is usually omitted in several papers. Despite the high variability, health services can use these models in order to anticipate disease scenarios, however, one should interpret with prudence since the magnitude of the epidemic may be underestimated. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 18/04654-9 - Séries temporais, ondaletas e dados de alta dimensão
Beneficiário:Pedro Alberto Morettin
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático