Kerteszia cruzii and extra-Amazonian malaria in Brazil: Challenges due to climate change in the Atlantic Forest

Autor(es)

de Azevedo, Thiago Salomao ^[1] ; Lorenz, Camila ^[2] ; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco ^[2] ; Mureb Sallum, Maria Anice ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Municipal Santa Barbara dOeste, Secretary Hlth, BR-13450021 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Publ, Dept Epidemiol, Av Dr Arnaldo 715, BR-05509300 Sao Paulo - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION; v. 85, NOV 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 1

Resumo

Kerteszia cruzii is a sylvatic mosquito and the primary vector of Plasmodium spp., which can cause malaria in humans in areas outside the Amazon River basin in Brazil. Anthropic changes in the natural environments are the major drivers of massive deforestation and local climate change, with serious impacts on the dynamics of mosquito communities and on the risk of acquiring malaria. Considering the lack of information on the dynamics of malaria transmission in areas across the Atlantic Forest biome, where Ke. cruzii is the dominant vector, and the impact of climate drivers of malaria, the present study aimed to: (i) investigate the occurrence and survival rate of Ke. cruzii based on the distinct vegetation profiles found in areas across the coastal region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome; (ii) estimate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and survival rates of P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites in Ke. cruzii under current and future scenarios. The potential distribution of Plasmodium spp. was estimated using simulation analyses under distinct scenarios of average temperature increases from 1 degrees C to 3.7 degrees C. Our results showed that two conditions are necessary to explain the occurrence and survival of Ke. cruzii: warm temperature and presence of the Atlantic Forest biome. Moreover, both Plasmodium species showed a tendency to decrease their EIP and increase their estimated survival rates in a scenario of higher temperature. Our findings support that the high-risk malaria areas may include the southern region of the distribution range of the Atlantic Forest biome in the coming years. Despite its limitations and assumptions, the present study provides robust evidence of areas with potential to be impacted by malaria incidence in a future scenario. These areas should be monitored in the next decades regarding the occurrence of the mosquito vector and the potential for malaria persistence and increased occurrence. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 17/10297-1 - Identificação de áreas de risco para arboviroses utilizando armadilhas para adultos de Aedes aegypti e Aedes albopictus e imagens de sensoriamento remoto
• Beneficiário: Camila Lorenz
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado