Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios

Autor(es)

Giarolla, Emanuel ^[1] ; Veiga, Sandro F. ^{[2, 3]} ; Nobre, Paulo ^[3] ; Silva, Jr., Manoel B. ^[3] ; Capistrano, Vinicius B. ^[4] ; Callegare, Andyara O. ^[5]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Ctr Weather Forecast & Climate Studies, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[2] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Earth Syst Sci Ctr, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[3] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Ctr Weather Forecast & Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil

^[4] Amazonas State Univ, Manaus, AM - Brazil

^[5] Univ Potsdam, Potsdam - Germany

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE; v. 70, n. 1 OCT 2020.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 1850-2005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 35-60 degrees S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 09/50528-6 - Modelo brasileiro do sistema climático global
• Beneficiário: Carlos Afonso Nobre
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 18/06204-0 - Implementação de infraestrutura de desenvolvimento do modelo BESM-Eta no ambiente de supercomputação do INPE no CPTEC
• Beneficiário: Manoel Baptista da Silva Junior
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa Capacitação - Treinamento Técnico