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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios

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Author(s):
Giarolla, Emanuel [1] ; Veiga, Sandro F. [2, 3] ; Nobre, Paulo [3] ; Silva, Jr., Manoel B. [3] ; Capistrano, Vinicius B. [4] ; Callegare, Andyara O. [5]
Total Authors: 6
Affiliation:
[1] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Ctr Weather Forecast & Climate Studies, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[2] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Earth Syst Sci Ctr, Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[3] Brazilian Natl Inst Space Res CPTEC INPE, Ctr Weather Forecast & Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil
[4] Amazonas State Univ, Manaus, AM - Brazil
[5] Univ Potsdam, Potsdam - Germany
Total Affiliations: 5
Document type: Journal article
Source: JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE; v. 70, n. 1 OCT 2020.
Web of Science Citations: 0
Abstract

The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 1850-2005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 35-60 degrees S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change
Grantee:Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 09/50528-6 - Brazilian model of the global climate system
Grantee:Carlos Afonso Nobre
Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
FAPESP's process: 18/06204-0 - Implementation of software infrastructure for the development of the BESM-Eta models in the supercomputer system available at INPE/CPTEC
Grantee:Manoel Baptista da Silva Junior
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Technical Training Program - Technical Training