INCT 2014: INCT for Climate Change

• Grant number: 14/50848-9
• Support type: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Thematic Grants
• Duration: July 01, 2017 - June 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Cooperation agreement: CNPq - INCTs
• Principal Investigator: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Grantee: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Home Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Brasil). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
• Co-Principal Investigators: Antonio Carlos Rodrigues de Amorim ; Carlos Alberto Vogt ; Chou Sin Chan ; Eduardo Amaral Haddad ; Eduardo Delgado Assad ; Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ; Enio Bueno Pereira ; Paulo Nobre ; Regina Célia dos Santos Alvalá
• Associated grant(s): 18/08413-6 - UK-Brazil collaboration for investigating the nexus between water, health and urban resilience, AP.R; 18/08287-0 - Improving water and food security in South America through the prediction of the timing of the rainy season, AP.R
• Associated scholarship(s): 18/06093-4 - Multidisciplinary research methods on disaster risk research: inputs for building people-centered and multihazards early warning systems, BE.PQ; 19/05361-8 - Impact of aerosols on the Brazilian solar energy resource potential, BP.PD; 18/20865-0 - Sizing, economic analysis and dynamic-modular design of biorretentions from the perspective of climate change and land use, BP.MS; + associated scholarships 19/02913-0 - Science communication of the INCT-II Climate Change, BP.TT; 18/08833-5 - Urbanization and climate change: impact evaluation in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, BP.DR; 18/22195-1 - New method of valuation of hydrological services using water supply and demand permanence curves under climate change, BP.IC; 18/17810-9 - Compilation of atmospheric properties of the Amazon, aiming to analyze their impact on the ecosystem, BP.TT; 18/16312-5 - A spacial impact analysis of water accessibility on farming in the Brazilian semiarid, BP.IC; 18/02081-1 - Assessing the climate and weather effects in Brazil using panel data, BE.PQ; 18/02982-9 - Influence of different scenarios of land use and land cover in Amazonia on the climate change projections over the La Plata River Basin, BP.PD; 17/15614-5 - Decentralized urban runoff recycling facility addressing the security of the water-energy-food nexus, BP.DR; 18/06204-0 - Implementation of software infrastructure for the development of the BESM-Eta models in the supercomputer system available at INPE/CPTEC, BP.TT; 17/21392-5 - Adaptation based on ecosystems through PES-Water using compensatory techniques to increase water security in urban watersheds, BP.IC; 17/24444-6 - Potential impacts of land use and land cover changes in the current and future water security of the Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiaí basin, BP.TT; 17/25439-6 - Compilation of atmospheric properties of the Amazon, aiming to analyze their impact on the ecosystem, BP.TT; 17/19403-9 - Fertility and inequality: evidence from Brazil, BP.DR; 17/06627-6 - Impact of global climate change on the main Brazilian Biomes, BP.PD - associated scholarships

Abstract

The INCT Climate Change aims to implement and develop a comprehensive network of interdisciplinary research on global change and sustainability, and is based on the cooperation between about 30 research groups from all regions of Brazil and 10 international research groups, involving in its entirety over approximately 300 researchers, students and technicians and establishing itself as one of the larges networks of environmental research developed in Brazil. The program consists of six thematic lines (or subcomponents): 1. food security; 2. water security; 3. energy security; 4. health; 5. natural disasters, impacts on physical infrastructure in urban areas and urban development; 6. impacts on Brazilian ecosystems in view of changes in land use and biodiversity. All these components are connected via 3 integrative themes or cross cutting themes: 1. economy and impacts in key sectors; 2. modeling the earth system and production of future climate scenarios to study Vulnerability-Impacts-Adaptation-Resilience for Sustainability VlARs; 3. communication, dissemination of knowledge and education for sustainability. This will allow the impacts of global change can be evaluated from the economic point of view, using projections of future climate to assess their potential impacts. Ali the results of this research will be presented and communicated to society and governments a clear and precise manner allowing a greater understanding by decision makers to propose public policies to address the current and future challenges of global change. The most accepted definition for the terms sustainability and sustainable development is the following: a development to meet the needs of society today without compromising the ability of future generations. To be achieved, sustainable development depends on planning and recognition that natural resources are finite. This concept represents a new form of economic development that takes into account environment. The INCT MC program provides an overview of issues related to sustainability and environmentally responsible business in order to facilitate the participation or even the implementation of activities in different areas of the company management and their relationships with "stakeholders". The development of the INCT MC scientific agenda will provide optimum conditions for the country to develop scientific excellence in various areas of global environmental change and its implications for sustainable development, especially when you consider that the economy of developing nations is strongly associated with renewable natural resources, as is strikingly the case in Brazil. The emphasis on the impacts of global climate change on agriculture, health, renewable energy, urban development, and natural disasters such as central themes integrated with environmental modeling, the economics and the communication of these impacts to the public, scientific community and academic sector, industry business and government can contribute to maintain excellence in activities in Science, Technology & Innovation as the axis of sustainable environmental development, with an integrative and innovative character. We use the state of the art on climate modeling using regional and global models to generate climate change scenarios, as well as the development of impacts models to assess consequence of climate change of various key sectors in Brazil. We also use climatic, land use and socioeconomic information, including economy and health, as well as experiments in the field and laboratory, all directed to assess impacts of climate in natural and human systems, and directed to the understanding of possible implications for climate change and mitigation options. This proposal includes knowledge transfer using instruments that go beyond only scientific articles, but producing audiovisual, web tools, and other outlets that allow a scientific education of the population, improving the impact of Brazilian science and also a greater international integration of Brazil in environmental negotiations. The design of the INCT MC is characterized by goals and targets to be achieved in the short, medium and long term, and their achievement is accomplished through well articulated, concatenated and synergistic activities. The six main sub components are integrated by three integrative themes, economic evaluations and environmental risk, the use of state of the art in scenarios of future climate projections developed by INPE. We also consider communication of global environmental issues for society and government needed to define scientific and public policies for large national and international environmental debates subsidies. Participating Brazilian institutions and centers have courses or graduate and undergraduate level, as well as technological training, or are operational centers that apply the state of the art knowledge on climate change and extremes for assessments, monitoring and predictions of natural disasters and their impacts. Some of the participating institutions have the scientific and logistical skills needed to create functional networks to effectively research, where operational and research activities can be favored by the visits of researchers from international groups that are already working on issues relevant to VIARs. For the INCT MC we plan to integrate national institutions with international regional and global programs of excellence in research and training matters relevant to vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, resilience and sustainability. (AU)

Scientific publications

(16)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

MARTINS, MINELLA ALVES; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; DIAS, CASSIA GABRIELE. Maize yield under a changing climate in the Brazilian Northeast: Impacts and adaptation. Agricultural Water Management, v. 216, p. 339-350, MAY 1 2019. Web of Science Citations: 0.

ESPINOZA, JHAN CARLO; RONCHAIL, JOSYANE; MARENGO, JOSE ANTONIO; SEGURA, HANS. Contrasting North-South changes in Amazon wet-day and dry-day frequency and related atmospheric features (1981-2017). Climate Dynamics, v. 52, n. 9-10, p. 5413-5430, MAY 2019. Web of Science Citations: 4.

REBOITA, MICHELLE SIMOES; AMBRIZZI, TERCIO; SILVA, BRUNA ANDRELINA; PINHEIRO, RANIELE FATIMA; DA ROCHA, ROSMERI PORFIRIO. The South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone: Present and Future Climate. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 7, FEB 26 2019. Web of Science Citations: 0.

DE MACEDO, MARINA BATALINI; FERREIRA DO LAGO, CESAR AMBROGI; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Stormwater volume reduction and water quality improvement by bioretention: Potentials and challenges for water security in a subtropical catchment. Science of The Total Environment, v. 647, p. 923-931, JAN 10 2019. Web of Science Citations: 3.

HADDAD, EDUARDO AMARAL; LOZANO-GRACIA, NANCY; GERMANI, EDUARDO; VIEIRA, RENATO S.; NAKAMURA, SHOHEI; SKOUFIAS, EMMANUEL; ALVES, BIANCA BIANCHI. Mobility in cities: Distributional impact analysis of transportation improvements in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region. TRANSPORT POLICY, v. 73, p. 125-142, JAN 2019. Web of Science Citations: 0.

MARENGO, JOSE A.; SOUZA, JR., CARLOS A.; THONICKE, KIRSTEN; BURTON, CHANTELLE; HALLADAY, KATE; BETTS, RICHARD A.; ALVES, LINCOLN M.; SOARES, WAGNER R. Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current and Future Variability and Trends. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 6, DEC 21 2018. Web of Science Citations: 0.

LAPOLA, DAVID M.; PINHO, PATRICIA; QUESADA, CARLOS A.; STRASSBURG, BERNARDO B. N.; RAMMIG, ANJA; KRUIJT, BART; BROWN, FOSTER; OMETTO, JEAN P. H. B.; PREMEBIDA, ADRIANO; MARENGO, JOSE A.; VERGARA, WALTER; NOBRE, CARLOS A. Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v. 115, n. 46, p. 11671-11679, NOV 13 2018. Web of Science Citations: 1.

TAFFARELLO, DENISE; SRINIVASAN, RAGHAVAN; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; BITTENCOURT GUIMARAES, JOAO LUIS; CALIJURI, MARIA DO CARMO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 22, n. 9, p. 4699-4723, SEP 7 2018. Web of Science Citations: 1.

ZHANG, RONG; CUARTAS, LUZ ADRIANA; DE CASTRO CARVALHO, LUIZ VALERIO; DEUSDARA LEAL, KARINNE REIS; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; ABE, NARUMI; BIRKINSHAW, STEPHEN; MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; SELUCHI, MARCELO ENRIQUE; NOBRE, CARLOS AFONSO. Season-based rainfall-runoff modelling using the probability-distributed model (PDM) for large basins in southeastern Brazil. Hydrological Processes, v. 32, n. 14, p. 2217-2230, JUL 1 2018. Web of Science Citations: 0.

SORI, ROGERT; MARENGO, JOSE A.; NIETO, RAQUEL; DRUMOND, ANITA; GIMENO, LUIS. The Atmospheric Branch of the Hydrological Cycle over the Negro and Madeira River Basins in the Amazon Region. WATER, v. 10, n. 6 JUN 2018. Web of Science Citations: 5.

RESTREPO-ESTRADA, CAMILO; DE ANDRADE, SIDGLEY CAMARGO; ABE, NARUMI; FAVA, MARIA CLARA; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; DE ALBUQUERQUE, JOAO PORTO. Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring. Computers & Geosciences, v. 111, p. 148-158, FEB 2018. Web of Science Citations: 3.

MENDES, RODOLFO M.; DE ANDRADE, MARCIO ROBERTO M.; TOMASELLA, JAVIER; DE MORAES, MARCIO AUGUSTO E.; SCOFIELD, GRAZIELA B. Understanding shallow landslides in Campos do Jordao municipality - Brazil: disentangling the anthropic effects from natural causes in the disaster of 2000. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 18, n. 1, p. 15-30, JAN 3 2018. Web of Science Citations: 1.

Performance of bioretention experimental devices: contrasting laboratory and field scales through controlled experiments. RBRH, v. 23, p. -, 2018.

DE MACEDO, MARINA BATALINI; ROSA, ALTAIR; FERREIRA DO LAGO, CESAR AMBROGI; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; BORGES DE SOUZA, VLADIMIR CARAMORI. Learning from the operation, pathology and maintenance of a bioretention system to optimize urban drainage practices. Journal of Environmental Management, v. 204, n. 1, p. 454-466, DEC 15 2017. Web of Science Citations: 8.

MOHOR, GUILHERME SAMPROGNA; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO. Economic indicators of hydrologic drought insurance under water demand and climate change scenarios in a Brazilian context. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, v. 140, p. 66-78, OCT 2017. Web of Science Citations: 2.

DE MACEDO, MARINA BATALINI; FERREIRA DO LAGO, CESAR AMBROGI; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; BORGES DE SOUZA, VLADIMIR CARAMORI. Performance of bioretention experimental devices: contrasting laboratory and field scales through controlled experiments. RBRH-REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE RECURSOS HIDRICOS, v. 23, 2017. Web of Science Citations: 1.