Global Analysis of a piecewise smooth epidemiological model of COVID-19

Autor(es)

Carvalho, Tiago ^[1] ; Cristiano, Rony ^[2] ; Rodrigues, Diego S. ^[3] ; Tonon, Durval J. ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Philosophy Sci & Letters Ribeirao Preto, Dept Comp & Math, BR-14040901 Ribeirao Preto, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Goias, Inst Math & Stat, Ave Esperanca S-N, Campus Samambaia, BR-74690900 Goiania, Go - Brazil

^[3] Univ Estadual Campinas, Sch Technol, R Paschoal Marmo 1888, BR-13484332 Limeira, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: NONLINEAR DYNAMICS; v. 105, n. 4 AUG 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

Despite the huge relevance of vaccines for preventing COVID-19, physical isolation and quarantine of infected individuals are still the key strategies to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a COVID-19 transmission epidemiological model governed by ordinary differential equations, here we propose an intermittent non-pharmacological protocol to control the fraction of infected individuals. In our approach, unlike what generically happens for numerical simulation models, we provide a global analysis of the model, giving qualitative information about every initial condition. Under some simple hypothesis and variations of parameters, we present some bifurcations and we are able to predict the minimum social distancing effort that do not collapse the health system. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 19/10269-3 - Teorias ergódica e qualitativa dos sistemas dinâmicos II
• Beneficiário: Claudio Aguinaldo Buzzi
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 19/10450-0 - Campos vetoriais suaves por partes: Closing Lemmas, shifts e dinâmicas do tipo ferradura.
• Beneficiário: Tiago de Carvalho
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular