he Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United State

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Moghadas, Seyed M. ^[1] ; Vilches, Thomas N. ^[2] ; Zhang, Kevin ^[3] ; Wells, Chad R. ^[4] ; Shoukat, Affan ^[4] ; Singer, Burton H. ^[5] ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^[6] ; Neuzil, Kathleen M. ^[7] ; Langley, Joanne M. ^{[8, 9]} ; Fitzpatrick, Meagan C. ^[7] ; Galvani, Alison P. ^[4]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] York Univ, Agent Based Modelling Lab, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 - Canada

^[2] Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Math Stat & Sci Comp, Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[3] Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Toronto, ON - Canada

^[4] Yale Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Infect Dis Modeling & Anal CIDMA, New Haven, CT - USA

^[5] Univ Florida, Emerging Pathogens Inst, Gainesville, FL - USA

^[6] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 - USA

^[7] Univ Maryland, Sch Med, Ctr Vaccine Dev & Global Hlth, Baltimore, MD 21201 - USA

^[8] Dalhousie Univ, Canadian Ctr Vaccinol, IWK Hlth Ctr, Halifax, NS - Canada

^[9] Nova Scotia Hlth Author, Halifax, NS - Canada

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Clinical Infectious Diseases; v. 73, n. 12, p. 2257-2264, DEC 15 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

Background. Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. Methods. We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States. Results. Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval {[}CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period. Conclusions. Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 18/24811-1 - Modelagem matemática para transmissão de esquistossomose em áreas de baixa prevalência
• Beneficiário: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado