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Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response

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Autor(es):
Ventura, Paulo Cesar ; Aleta, Alberto ; Rodrigues, Francisco A. ; Moreno, Yamir
Número total de Autores: 4
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS; v. 156, p. 10-pg., 2022-03-01.
Resumo

A B S T R A C T Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorpo-rate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease, such as social distancing and adoption of preven-tion methods. Mobility plays an important role on epidemic dynamics and is also affected by behavioral changes, but there are many situations in which real mobility data is incomplete or inaccessible. We present a model for epidemic spreading in temporal networks of mobile agents that incorporates local behavioral responses. Susceptible agents are allowed to move towards the opposite direction of infected agents in their neighborhood. We show that this mechanism considerably decreases the stationary preva-lence when the spatial density of agents is low. However, for higher densities, the mechanism causes an abrupt phase transition, where a new bistable phase appears. We develop a semi-analytic approach for the case when the mobility is fast compared to the disease dynamics, and use it to argue that the bistability is caused by the emergence of spatial clusters of susceptible agents. Finally, we characterize the temporal networks formed in the fast mobility regime, showing how the degree distributions and other metrics are affected by the behavioral mechanism. Our work incorporates results previously known from adaptive networks into population of mobile agents, which can be further developed to be used in mobility-driven models.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 19/11183-5 - Dinâmica simples e acoplada em populações multiplex
Beneficiário:Paulo Cesar Ventura da Silva
Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 16/24555-0 - Propagação de informação em redes multicamadas
Beneficiário:Paulo Cesar Ventura da Silva
Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 19/23293-0 - Predição e inferência em sistemas complexos
Beneficiário:Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
Processo FAPESP: 13/07375-0 - CeMEAI - Centro de Ciências Matemáticas Aplicadas à Indústria
Beneficiário:Francisco Louzada Neto
Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Centros de Pesquisa, Inovação e Difusão - CEPIDs