Modeling landscape dynamics in an Atlantic Rainforest region: Implications for conservation

Autor(es)

Teixeira, Ana Maria G. ^[1] ; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S. ^[2] ; Freitas, Simone R. ^{[1, 3]} ; Metzger, Jean Paul ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Biosci, Dept Ecol, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Ctr Remote Sensing, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG - Brazil

^[3] Fed Univ ABC, BR-09090400 Santo Andre, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo de Revisão
• Fonte: FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT; v. 257, n. 4, p. 1219-1230, FEB 20 2009.
• Citações Web of Science: 88

Resumo

The dynamics of the Atlantic Rainforest loss and recovery are still not fully understood despite its long history of human occupation. In this study, we investigated changes in an Atlantic Rainforest region due to major biophysical and human proximate causes. First, we modeled land-cover and land-use changes from 1962 to 2000, including deforestation and forest regrowth, and thereby simulated future landscape trajectories to assess their possible effects on the conservation of forest species of the lbiuna Plateau, a region located in Southeastern Brazil within the Atlantic Rainforest biome. We modeled four scenarios (status quo, random, law enforcement, and land-use intensification) and simulated their resulting landscape trajectories for the year 2019 using DINAMICA. The landscape dynamics in the study region were particularly intense. During the first period of 1962-1981, the rate of forest regrowth (3% year(-1)) was greater than the rate of deforestation (2% year(-1)), whereas in the latter period of 1981-2000, increasing urbanization and the spreading of rural establishments resulted in more deforestation (2.9% year(-1)) than regrowth (1% year(-1)). These dynamics imprinted a heterogeneous landscape, leading to the predominance of progressively younger secondary forests with increasingly less capacity of hosting sensitive forest species. The influence of proximate causes on the dynamics of deforestation and forest regrowth showed consistent patterns, such as higher forest regrowth rates near rivers, on steep slopes and far from dirt roads, whereas losses in young secondary vegetation and forest were far from rivers, on gentle slopes and near urban areas. Of the modeled scenarios, only the law enforcement scenario may lead to the recovery of a network of interconnected forest patches, suggesting that simply the enforcement of current forest laws, which prohibit deforestation on unsuitable agricultural areas and along river margins and establish a minimum of 20% of forest remnant per rural property, may effectively favor forest species conservation in the short term (two decades) without the need of any forest restoration effort. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 00/01587-5 - Relações entre o padrão do relevo e a diversidade de espécies arbóreas em fragmentos de Mata Atlântica na região de Caucaia, SP
• Beneficiário: William Goulart da Silva
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Mestrado
• Processo FAPESP: 99/05123-4 - Conservação da biodiversidade em paisagens fragmentadas no Planalto Atlântico de São Paulo (Brasil)
• Beneficiário: Jean Paul Walter Metzger
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa BIOTA - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 06/02673-9 - Relações entre as estradas e a fragmentação florestal na região do planalto de Ibiúna (SP)
• Beneficiário: Simone Rodrigues de Freitas
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado