The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

Autor(es)

Mo Yang Hyun ^[1] ; Ariana Campos Yang ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Universidade Estadual de Campinas. IMECC. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Brasil

^[2] FCMS - Brasil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; v. 93, p. 63-73, 1998-00-00.

Resumo

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 97/12543-4 - Estudo da transmissão de epidemias e pestes causadas por micro e macro-parasitas e possíveis mecanismos de controle
• Beneficiário: Hyun Mo Yang
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular