Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

Autor(es)

Marengo, J. A. ^[1] ; Espinoza, J. C. ^[2]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Minist Ciencia Tecnol & Inovacao, Ctr Nacl Monitoramento & Alerta Desastres Nat, Rodovia Dutra Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, BR-12630000 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Inst Geofis Peru, SCAH, Lima - Peru

• Tipo de documento: Artigo de Revisão
• Fonte: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY; v. 36, n. 3, p. 1033-1050, MAR 15 2016.
• Citações Web of Science: 121

Resumo

This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Nina/El Nino events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 13/50538-7 - Entendimento das causas dos vieses que determinam o início da estação chuvosa na Amazônia nos modelos climáticos usando observações do GoAmazon e CHUVA
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 11/51843-2 - Impact of climate extremes on ecosystems and human health in Brazil: PULSE-Brazil
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 08/57719-9 - Programa de Mudanças Climáticas - INCT CLIMA
• Beneficiário: Carlos Afonso Nobre
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático