Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Autor(es)

Zemp, Delphine Clara ; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ; Barbosa, Henrique M. J. ; Hirota, Marina ; Montade, Vincent ; Sampaio, Gilvan ; Staal, Arie ; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan ; Rammig, Anja

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 8, MAR 13 2017.
• Citações Web of Science: 56

Resumo

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 13/50510-5 - Pesquisa colaborativa Brasil-EUA: modificações causadas pela poluição antrópica na química da atmosfera e na microfísica de partículas da floresta tropical durante as campanhas intensivas do GoAmazon
• Beneficiário: Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Regular
• Processo FAPESP: 11/50151-0 - Fenômenos dinâmicos em redes complexas: fundamentos e aplicações
• Beneficiário: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático