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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
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| Author(s): |
Zemp, Delphine Clara
;
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
;
Barbosa, Henrique M. J.
;
Hirota, Marina
;
Montade, Vincent
;
Sampaio, Gilvan
;
Staal, Arie
;
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
;
Rammig, Anja
Total Authors: 9
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS; v. 8, MAR 13 2017. |
| Web of Science Citations: | 45 |
| Abstract | |
Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 11/50151-0 - Dynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications |
| Grantee: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Support type: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 13/50510-5 - Brazil-USA collaborative research: modifications by anthropogenic pollution of the natural atmospheric chemistry and particle microphysics of the tropical rain forest during GoAmazon intensive operating periods |
| Grantee: | Henrique de Melo Jorge Barbosa |
| Support type: | Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants |