Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action

Autor(es):Mostrar menos -

Lapola, David M. ^[1] ; Pinho, Patricia ^[2] ; Quesada, Carlos A. ^[3] ; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N. ^{[4, 5]} ; Rammig, Anja ^[6] ; Kruijt, Bart ^[7] ; Brown, Foster ^{[8, 9]} ; Ometto, Jean P. H. B. ^[10] ; Premebida, Adriano ^[11] ; Marengo, Jose A. ^[12] ; Vergara, Walter ^[13] ; Nobre, Carlos A. ^[14]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es):Mostrar menos -

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Ctr Meteorol & Climat Res Appl Agr, BR-13083886 Campinas, SP - Brazil

^[2] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-11419 Stockholm - Sweden

^[3] Natl Inst Amazonia Res, Coordinat Environm Dynam, BR-69080971 Manaus, Amazonas - Brazil

^[4] Int Inst Sustainabil, BR-22460320 Rio De Janeiro - Brazil

^[5] Pontifical Catholic Univ Rio de Janeiro, Dept Geog & Environm, BR-22451900 Rio De Janeiro - Brazil

^[6] Tech Univ Munich, Sch Life Sci Weihenstephan, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan - Germany

^[7] Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6700 AA Wageningen - Netherlands

^[8] Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02540 - USA

^[9] Univ Fed Acre, Dept Geog, BR-69920900 Rio Branco, AC - Brazil

^[10] Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[11] Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Grad Program Sociol, BR-91509900 Porto Alegre, RS - Brazil

^[12] Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat Disasters, Res & Dev Coordinat, BR-12630000 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

^[13] World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20002 - USA

^[14] Natl Inst Sci & Technol Climate Change, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA; v. 115, n. 46, p. 11671-11679, NOV 13 2018.
• Citações Web of Science: 3

Resumo

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change {[}Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) \$957 billion (x10(9)) and \$3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian Amazon Product of USD \$150 billion per year), arising primarily from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives-e.g., curbing deforestation-are attainable (USD \$64 billion), their efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures is also attainable (USD \$122 billion) and could bring benefits even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 15/02537-7 - AmazonFACE/ME: projeto de integração Modelagem-Experimento do Amazon-FACE - o papel da biodiversidade e feedbacks climáticos
• Beneficiário: David Montenegro Lapola
• Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Jovens Pesquisadores
• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 14/50627-2 - Devil: promovendo segurança alimentar com disponibilidade restrita de terra
• Beneficiário: Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto
• Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático