Disease persistence and serotype coexistence: An expected feature of human mobility

Autor(es)

Vilches, T. N. ^[1] ; Esteva, L. ^[2] ; Ferreira, C. P. ^[1]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Biostat, BR-18618689 Botucatu, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF - Mexico

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: Applied Mathematics and Computation; v. 355, p. 161-172, AUG 15 2019.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

We present a stochastic model that mimics dengue transmission when two serotypes of the virus are circulating in a human population connected by a Watts-Strogatz complex network that reflects social interactions (human mobility). The influence of the number of connections per vertex and the network topology on the epidemics is analyzed. The first relation displays a sigmoid curve, while the second one shows that the increase in the network disorder facilitates disease spreading and serotype coexistence. The disease transmission thresholds for three network topology (regular, small-world and random) were obtained. Numerical results show that when coexistence of serotypes is a feasible outcome, negative correlation between the temporal evolution of the two serotype is more likely to occur. This could explain serotype dominance in consecutive epidemics. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 13/01552-7 - Influência da imunidade cruzada e do controle na periodicidade da dengue
• Beneficiário: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Mestrado
• Processo FAPESP: 13/23986-9 - Modelo para a transmissão de dengue com dois sorotipos de vírus através de redes complexas
• Beneficiário: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Exterior - Estágio de Pesquisa - Mestrado