Disease persistence and serotype coexistence: An expected feature of human mobility

Author(s)

Vilches, T. N. ^[1] ; Esteva, L. ^[2] ; Ferreira, C. P. ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Sao Paulo State Univ UNESP, Inst Biosci, Dept Biostat, BR-18618689 Botucatu, SP - Brazil

^[2] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF - Mexico

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Applied Mathematics and Computation; v. 355, p. 161-172, AUG 15 2019.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

We present a stochastic model that mimics dengue transmission when two serotypes of the virus are circulating in a human population connected by a Watts-Strogatz complex network that reflects social interactions (human mobility). The influence of the number of connections per vertex and the network topology on the epidemics is analyzed. The first relation displays a sigmoid curve, while the second one shows that the increase in the network disorder facilitates disease spreading and serotype coexistence. The disease transmission thresholds for three network topology (regular, small-world and random) were obtained. Numerical results show that when coexistence of serotypes is a feasible outcome, negative correlation between the temporal evolution of the two serotype is more likely to occur. This could explain serotype dominance in consecutive epidemics. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 13/01552-7 - The influence of cross-immunity and dengue control on epidemics periodicity
• Grantee: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Support type: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• FAPESP's process: 13/23986-9 - Dengue transmission model with two serotypes of virus through complex networks
• Grantee: Thomas Nogueira Vilches
• Support type: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Master's degree