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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

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Autor(es):
Pinotti, Francesco [1] ; Wikramaratna, Paul S. ; Obolski, Uri [2, 3] ; Paton, Robert S. [1] ; Damineli, Daniel S. C. [4] ; Alcantara, Luiz C. J. [5, 6] ; Giovanetti, Marta [5, 6] ; Gupta, Sunetra [1] ; Lourenco, Jose [1]
Número total de Autores: 9
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford - England
[2] Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Tel Aviv - Israel
[3] Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Tel Aviv - Israel
[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Pediat, Fac Med, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[5] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Lab Genet Celular & Mol, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brazil
[6] Inst Oswaldo Cruz Fiocruz, Lab Flavivirus, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil
Número total de Afiliações: 6
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: BMC MEDICINE; v. 19, n. 1 JAN 12 2021.
Citações Web of Science: 1
Resumo

Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a ``proof of possibility{''} for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 20/06160-3 - Resposta transcricional de leucócitos humanos à infecção por SARS-CoV-2
Beneficiário:Roberto Marcondes Cesar Junior
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Regular
Processo FAPESP: 19/23343-7 - Análise temporal da expressão gênica
Beneficiário:Daniel Santa Cruz Damineli
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado