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(Reference retrieved automatically from Web of Science through information on FAPESP grant and its corresponding number as mentioned in the publication by the authors.)

Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

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Author(s):
Pinotti, Francesco [1] ; Wikramaratna, Paul S. ; Obolski, Uri [2, 3] ; Paton, Robert S. [1] ; Damineli, Daniel S. C. [4] ; Alcantara, Luiz C. J. [5, 6] ; Giovanetti, Marta [5, 6] ; Gupta, Sunetra [1] ; Lourenco, Jose [1]
Total Authors: 9
Affiliation:
[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford - England
[2] Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Tel Aviv - Israel
[3] Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Tel Aviv - Israel
[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Pediat, Fac Med, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[5] Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Lab Genet Celular & Mol, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brazil
[6] Inst Oswaldo Cruz Fiocruz, Lab Flavivirus, Rio De Janeiro - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 6
Document type: Journal article
Source: BMC MEDICINE; v. 19, n. 1 JAN 12 2021.
Web of Science Citations: 1
Abstract

Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a ``proof of possibility{''} for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. (AU)

FAPESP's process: 19/23343-7 - Temporal analysis of gene expression
Grantee:Daniel Santa Cruz Damineli
Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
FAPESP's process: 20/06160-3 - Human leukocyte transcriptional response to SARS-CoV-2 infection
Grantee:Roberto Marcondes Cesar Junior
Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants