COVID-19 crisis monitor: assessing the effectiveness of exit strategies in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Autor(es)

Haddad, Eduardo A. ^{[1, 2]} ; Vieira, Renato S. ^[3] ; Araujo, Inacio F. ^[1] ; Ichihara, Silvio M. ^[4] ; Perobelli, Fernando S. ^[5] ; Bugarin, Karina S. S. ^[6]

Afiliação do(s) autor(es)

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Econ, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Mohammed VI Polytech, Fac Gouvernance Sci Econ & Sociales, Ben Guerir - Morocco

^[3] Univ Catolica Brasilia, Dept Econ, Brasilia, DF - Brazil

^[4] DERSA, Secretariat Logist & Transportat, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[5] Univ Fed Juiz de Fora, Dept Econ, Juiz De Fora - Brazil

^[6] Econ & Polit Res Grp, Brasilia, DF - Brazil

• Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
• Fonte: ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE; NOV 2021.
• Citações Web of Science: 0

Resumo

As COVID-19-related health indicators improve after restrictive measures were set in place in different parts of the world, governments are expected to guide how to ease interventions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Whereas epidemiologists track the progress of the disease using daily indicators to understand the pandemic better, economic activity indicators are usually available at a lower frequency and with considerable time lags. We propose and implement a timely trade-based regional economic activity indicator (EAI) that uses high-frequency traffic data to monitor daily sectoral economic activity in different sectors for the Brazilian State of Sao Paulo, a highly impacted region, overcoming the challenge of real-time assessment of the economy amid the COVID-19 outbreak. We then use this novel set of information combined with hospitalization rates to provide a first assessment of the Sao Paulo Plan, the COVID-19 exit strategy designed to gradually lifting interventions introduced to control the outbreak in the State. Available data show that, in its first 60 days, the phased strategy pursued in Sao Paulo has been effective in gradually reactivating economic activity while maintaining the adequate responsiveness of the healthcare system. (AU)

• Processo FAPESP: 14/50848-9 - INCT 2014: INCT para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC)
• Beneficiário: Jose Antonio Marengo Orsini
• Modalidade de apoio: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Programa de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais - Temático
• Processo FAPESP: 19/00057-9 - Sustentabilidade agrícola e agroindustrial no Chile: modelando os impactos de mudanças climáticas e de desastres naturais em um sistema integrado
• Beneficiário: Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior
• Modalidade de apoio: Bolsas no Brasil - Programa Capacitação - Treinamento Técnico