Prediction of forest degradation as a subsidy for mitigating actions to preventing fires and wildfires

• Grant number: 20/08916-8
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: February 01, 2021
• End date: June 30, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Agreement: FAPEAM
• Principal Investigator: Liana Oighenstein Anderson
• Grantee: Liana Oighenstein Anderson
• Host Institution: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Nacionais (CEMADEN). Cachoeira Paulista , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: Cachoeira Paulista
• Associated researchers: Aurora Miho Yanai Nascimento ; Chantelle Burton ; Christopher Jones ; Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão ; Paulo Maurício Lima Alencastro Graça ; Ricardo Dal'Agnol da Silva ; Richard Betts
• Associated research grant(s): 23/15434-8 - 2024 ASSA Annual Meeting, AR.EXT
• Associated scholarship(s): 22/10986-0 - Prediction of forest degradation from logging and deforestation in Boca do Acre, Amazonas, BP.TT; 21/03576-7 - Prediction of forest degradation as a subsidy for mitigating actions to preventing wildfires, BP.TT; 21/04019-4 - Prediction of probability of fires and wildfires: climatic and anthropic effects, BP.TT

Abstract

Forest degradation results mainly from burning in neighbouring deforested areas from which fires escape control to become forest fires. These events are intensified by the combined effect of logging and climate change, jeopardizing the conservation of the Amazon rainforest and its ecosystem services. Logging, both in authorized management plans and through illegal activities, increases the vulnerability of the forest to the entry and spread of forest fires. This is due to the increase in combustible material that results from collateral damage caused by the logging and dragging processes. Logging also opens the canopy, allowing entry of more radiation and increasing the intensity of wind, thus making the local microclimate warmer and drier. Climate change, which has already been observed in some parts of the Amazon, causes a lengthening of the dry season and increases the frequency of extreme droughts, directly affecting the occurrence of forest fires. The general objective of the project, therefore, is to provide a diagnosis and prognosis of forest degradation caused by logging and by forest fires resulting from burning in cleared areas. The project will generate scenarios that can aid in preventive control of burning and provide information for the management of natural resources and conservation areas. (AU)

Scientific publications

(19)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

DUTRA, DEBORA JOANA; SILVEIRA, MARCUS VINICIUS FREITAS; MATAVELI, GUILHERME; FERRO, POLIANA DOMINGOS; MAGALHAES, DEILA DA SILVA; DE MEDEIROS, THAIS PEREIRA; ANDERSON, LIANA OIGHENSTEIN; DE ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO OLIVEIRA E CRUZ. Challenges for reducing carbon emissions from Land-Use and Land Cover Change in Brazil. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 22, n. 3, p. 6-pg., 2024-09-23. (22/11698-8, 20/16457-3, 20/15230-5, 21/04019-4, 19/25701-8, 23/03206-0, 20/08916-8)

SANTOS, JERFFERSON L.; YANAI, AURORA M.; GRACA, PAULO M. L. A.; CORREIA, FRANCIS W. S.; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP M.. Amazon deforestation: simulated impact of Brazil's proposed BR-319 highway project. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT, v. 195, n. 10, p. 22-pg., 2023-10-01. (20/08916-8)

CARVALHO, NATHALIA S.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; NUNES, CASSIO A.; PESSOA, ANA C. M.; SILVA JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; REIS, JOAO B. C.; SHIMABUKURO, YOSIO E.; BERENGUER, ERIKA; BARLOW, JOS; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Spatio-temporal variation in dry season determines the Amazonian fire calendar. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, v. 16, n. 12, DEC 2021. (16/02018-2, 20/08916-8)

MATAVELI, GUILHERME; DE OLIVEIRA, GABRIEL; SILVA-JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; STARK, SCOTT C.; CARVALHO, NATHALIA; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; GATTI, LUCIANA V.; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.. Record-breaking fires in the Brazilian Amazon associated with uncontrolled deforestation. NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, v. 6, n. 12, p. 2-pg., 2022-11-17. (20/08916-8, 20/15230-5, 19/25701-8, 16/02018-2)

FERNANDES, STEPHANNIE; FERNANDES, GERALDO W.; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP M.. Viewpoint: Sovereignty and reversing Brazil's history of Amazon destruction. LAND USE POLICY, v. 133, p. 3-pg., 2023-10-01. (20/08916-8)

PEREIRA, CASSIO CARDOSO; MELLO, MARCO A. R.; NEGREIROS, DANIEL; FIGUEIREDO, JOAO CARLOS GOMES; KENEDY-SIQUEIRA, WALISSON; MAIA, LARA RIBEIRO; FERNANDES, STEPHANNIE; FERNANDES, GABRIELA FRANCA CARNEIRO; DE LEON, AMANDA PONCE; ASHWORTH, LORENA; et al. Beware of scientific scams! Hints to avoid predatory publishing in biological journals. NEOTROPICAL BIOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 18, n. 2, p. 9-pg., 2023-01-01. (23/02881-6, 18/20695-7, 20/08916-8)

LAPOLA, DAVID M.; PINHO, PATRICIA; BARLOW, JOS; ARAGAO, LUIZ E. O. C.; BERENGUER, ERIKA; CARMENTA, RACHEL; LIDDY, HANNAH M.; SEIXAS, HUGO; SILVA, CAMILA V. J.; SILVA-JUNIOR, CELSO H. L.; et al. The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation. Science, v. 379, n. 6630, p. 12-pg., 2023-01-27. (20/08916-8, 20/16457-3, 20/08940-6, 16/02018-2, 15/02537-7, 20/15230-5)

COSTA, JESSICA GOMES; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN; OLIVEIRA, IGOR; ANDERSON, LIANA OIGHENSTEIN; OLIVEIRA E CRUZ DE ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO; NEGREIROS ALMEIDA, MARLLUS RAFAEL; CLEMENTE, FRANCISCO SALATIEL; NASCIMENTO, ERIC DE SOUZA; SOUZA, GEANE DA CONCEICAO; KARLOKOSKI, ADRIELE; et al. Forest Degradation in the Southwest Brazilian Amazon: Impact on Tree Species of Economic Interest and Traditional Use. FIRE-SWITZERLAND, v. 6, n. 6, p. 15-pg., 2023-06-01. (20/08916-8, 20/15230-5, 21/07660-2)

CABRAL, BEATRIZ FIGUEIREDO; YANAI, AURORA MIHO; GRACA, PAULO MAURICIO LIMA DE ALENCASTRO; ESCADA, MARIA ISABEL SOBRAL; DE ALMEIDA, CLAUDIA MARIA; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN. Amazon deforestation: A dangerous future indicated by patterns and trajectories in a hotspot of forest destruction in Brazil. Journal of Environmental Management, v. 354, p. 12-pg., 2024-02-22. (20/08916-8)

MATAVELI, GUILHERME A. V.; DE OLIVEIRA, GABRIEL; SEIXAS, HUGO T.; PEREIRA, GABRIEL; STARK, SCOTT C.; GATTI, LUCIANA V.; BASSO, LUANA S.; TEJADA, GRACIELA; CASSOL, HENRIQUE L. G.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; et al. Relationship between Biomass Burning Emissions and Deforestation in Amazonia over the Last Two Decades. FORESTS, v. 12, n. 9, SEP 2021. (20/02656-4, 18/14006-4, 16/02018-2, 18/18493-7, 20/08916-8, 19/25701-8, 18/14423-4, 19/23654-2)

AZEVEDO-SANTOS, VALTER M.; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP M.; ARCIFA, MARLENE S.; TONELLA, LIVIA H.; GIARRIZZO, TOMMASO; PELICICE, FERNANDO M.; AGOSTINHO, ANGELO A.; MAGURRAN, ANNE E.; POFF, N. LEROY. Irrigation dams threaten Brazilian biodiversity. Environmental Management, v. 73, n. 5, p. 7-pg., 2024-02-29. (20/08916-8)

DA SILVA, SONAIRA SOUZA; BROWN, FOSTER; SAMPAIO, AMANDA DE OLIVEIRA; SILVA, ANA LUIZA COSTA; DOS SANTOS, NAIRIANE CHERLINS RODRIGUES SOUZA; LIMA, AROLDO CARVALHO; SILVA, PAULO HENRIQUE DA COSTA; AQUINO, ANTONIO MARCOS DE SOUZA; MOREIRA, JOSE GENIVALDO DO VALE; OLIVEIRA, IGOR; et al. Amazon climate extremes: Increasing droughts and floods in Brazil's state of Acre. PERSPECTIVES IN ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, v. 21, n. 4, p. 7-pg., 2023-11-21. (20/08916-8)

PEREIRA, CASSIO CARDOSO; FERNANDES, STEPHANNIE; KENEDY-SIQUEIRA, WALISSON; NEGREIROS, DANIEL; FERNANDES, GERALDO WILSON; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN. Brazil's Cerrado cannot be a sacrifice zone for the Amazon: financial assistance and stricter laws are needed. Bioscience, v. 74, n. 9, p. 2-pg., 2024-08-28. (20/08916-8)

WANG, SEAVER; FOSTER, ADRIANNA; LENZ, ELIZABETH A.; KESSLER, JOHN D.; STROEVE, JULIENNE C.; ANDERSON, LIANA O.; TURETSKY, MERRITT; BETTS, RICHARD; ZOU, SIJIA; LIU, WEI; et al. Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, v. 61, n. 1, p. 81-pg., 2023-03-01. (20/15230-5, 20/08916-8, 16/02018-2)

DUTRA, DEBORA JOANA; ANDERSON, LIANA OIGHENSTEIN; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN; LIMA DE ALENCASTRO GRACA, PAULO MAURICIO; YANAI, AURORA MIHO; DALAGNOL, RICARDO; BURTON, CHANTELLE; JONES, CHRISTOPHER; BETTS, RICHARD; OLIVEIRA E CRUZ DE ARAGAO, LUIZ EDUARDO. Fire Dynamics in an Emerging Deforestation Frontier in Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil. FIRE-SWITZERLAND, v. 6, n. 1, p. 24-pg., 2023-01-01. (20/08916-8, 20/15230-5, 21/04019-4)

MACHADO VILANI, RODRIGO; FERRANTE, LUCAS; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP M.. The first acts of Brazil's new president: Lula's new Amazon institutionality. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION, v. N/A, p. 4-pg., 2023-05-22. (20/08916-8)

PEREIRA, CASSIO CARDOSO; KENEDY-SIQUEIRA, WALISSON; NEGREIROS, DANIEL; FERNANDES, STEPHANNIE; BARBOSA, MILTON; GOULART, FERNANDO FIGUEIREDO; ATHAYDE, SIMONE; WOLF, CHRISTOPHER; HARRISON, IAN J.; BETTS, MATTHEW G.; et al. Scientists' warning: six key points where biodiversity can improve climate change mitigation. Bioscience, v. 74, n. 5, p. 4-pg., 2024-05-23. (20/08916-8)

PEREIRA, CASSIO CARDOSO; RODRIGUES, DOMINGOS DE JESUS; SALM, RODOLFO; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN. Amazon projects pose risks to Brazil and the World. Bioscience, v. N/A, p. 4-pg., 2025-02-04. (20/08916-8)

PRASNIEWSKI, VICTOR MATEUS; SZINWELSKI, NEUCIR; BROCARDO, CARLOS RODRIGO; FEARNSIDE, PHILIP MARTIN; SOBRAL-SOUZA, THADEU. Economic risks of environmental setbacks in Brazil's Iguaçu National Park. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION, v. N/A, p. 9-pg., 2024-10-03. (20/08916-8)