Favorability zoning for the occurrence of Asian Citrus Psyllid and postbloom citrus drop in the expanded Brazilian citrus belt under climate change scenarios

• Grant number: 23/02915-8
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: March 01, 2024
• End date: February 28, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Plant Health
• Principal Investigator: Alécio Souza Moreira
• Grantee: Alécio Souza Moreira
• Host Institution: Embrapa Agricultura Digital. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA). Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (Brasil). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Celia Regina Grego ; Daniel de Castro Victoria ; Eduardo Augusto Girardi ; Fernanda Rausch Fernandes ; Francisco Ferraz Laranjeira Barbosa ; Geraldo José da Silva Junior ; João Camargo Neto ; José Eduardo Boffino de Almeida Monteiro ; JUAN CAMILO CIFUENTES ARENAS ; Júlio César Dalla Mora Esquerdo ; Kleber Xavier Sampaio de Souza ; Laércio Luis Vendite ; Marcelo Pedreira de Miranda ; Maria Fernanda Moura ; Mauricio Antonio Coelho Filho ; Renato Beozzo Bassanezi ; Sílvio Aparecido Lopes ; Sônia Ternes
• Associated scholarship(s): 24/16847-7 - Computational modeling to predict the favorable occurrence of Diaphorina citri and postbloom fruit drop, BP.TT; 24/14184-0 - Database build of predictor variables for modeling of Diaphorina citri occurence and postbloom fruit drop in the expanded citrus belt, BP.TT; 24/05417-1 - Database build of predictor variables for modeling of Diaphorina citri occurence and postbloom fruit drop in the expanded citrus belt, BP.TT; 24/05941-2 - Computational modeling to predict the favorable occurrence of Diaphorina citri and postbloom fruit drop, BP.TT

Abstract

Brazil is the world's second largest producer of citrus and the first of sweet oranges. This production is mainly concentrated in the state of São Paulo (SP) and in part of Minas Gerais (MG), a region known as the citrus belt (CB). The main phytosanitary challenges of the crop are concentrated in the CC, caused by the occurrence of huanglongbing (HLB) and postbloom fruit drop (PFD), in addition to other pests and diseases and adverse weather events, especially water and heat stress. The agroclimatic risk indication was published by Embrapa in partnership with the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) in 2020, known as Zarc Citros and includes the CB and adjacent areas in the states of MS, PR, GO and DF, in addition to other areas in SP and MG, in what we call the expanded citrus belt (ECB). Given the urgent need for indication of areas that offer lower risk for HLB spread and the high dependence of weather conditions for PFD occurrence, the agroclimatic risk for citrus production in the ECB needs to be complemented with an indication for both the risk of occurrence of the psyllid D. citri, vector of the bacteria associated with HLB, and PFD. This information is important for citrus growers in the ECB to have greater confidence in prospecting new areas to growing citrus in current and future scenarios of climate change. Therefore, similar to Zarc Citros (https://indicadores.agricultura.gov.br/zarc/index.htm), this project aims to obtain maps indicating the favorability for the occurrence of D. citri and PFD in an economically important geographic area of the Brazilian territory. This tool could provide information for the adoption of public policies and help citrus growers in selecting new areas for planting and for a better management of the psyllid vector, HLB and PFD, in addition to serving as a basis for future zoning for other pests and diseases in the expanded citrus belt. (AU)