Selection and optimization of oil exploration and production project portfolios using risk aversion models

• Grant number: 07/02260-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: September 01, 2007
• End date: July 31, 2008
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Mechanical Engineering
• Principal Investigator: Saul Barisnik Suslick
• Grantee: Rafael Costa Galeno
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica (FEM). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

One of the main impacts of the new technological progress in the petroleum companies is the increasing number of projects in E&P portfolios, now competing with companys budget constraint. Despite of the increase of oil prices, several types of restrictions (geologic uncertainties, human resources, rigs, materials, etc...) occurs in the project management making the decision process of projects optimization and selection a complex task. This project proposes an integrated solution for analysis of E&P portfolios projects, considering the risk aversion models (preference theory) and the characteristics of risk and return, and incorporating new types of metric for projects optimization and selection. The methodology that will be used to achieve the portfolio optimization is based return maximatization and risk minimization. The quantitative tools for portfolio optimization will be linear programming and genetic algorithms. The portfolio selection will be build upon different scenarios, through indifference curves. The discovered but undeveloped reserves of heavy-oil in deep-waters will be used as a case-study because they present different types of constraints and geological and technological uncertainties. The results of this research will allow the selection of an optimal portfolio being based not only on the financial restrictions, but also incorporating various types of geological, operational, and technological variables, among others.

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

GALENO, Rafael Costa. Quantitative tools integration in the portfolio selection of petroleum production projects. 2008. Master's Dissertation - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica Campinas, SP.