Modelling and stochastic simulation to study the dynamics of Rickettsia rickettsii in populations of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris and Amblyomma cajennense in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

• Grant number: 14/12213-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: September 01, 2014
• End date: September 01, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Veterinary Medicine - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
• Agreement: Coordination of Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES)
• Principal Investigator: Fernando Ferreira
• Grantee: Gina Paola Polo Infante
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 16/01913-8 - Metapopulation epidemic model of Rickettsia rickettsii dynamics in a spatially structured population of capybaras, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

Brazilian Spotted Fever (BSF), caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, is the vector-borne disease that generates more human deaths in the state of São Paulo. In this region, the endemic areas of BSF are associated with the presence and expansion of capybaras Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, amplifier hosts of R. rickettsii and primary hosts of the tick Amblyomma cajennense, vector of the agent in this area. This paper aims to: 1) build a stochastic model that represents the dynamics of spotted fever that consider different cycles of the capybaras and ticks populations and, 2) simulate the impact of different control strategies of the population of capybaras to establish a minimum population density of susceptible animals to ensure the establishment and maintenance of infection by R. rickettsii in the A. cajennense population in areas of low and high diversity of hosts. The results of this work will allow the formulation of a public action to manage the population of capybaras in the state of São Paulo, based on the prevention of human cases of FMB. (AU)

Scientific publications

(4)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

POLO, GINA; ACOSTA, CARLOS MERA; LABRUNA, MARCELO B.; FERREIRA, FERNANDO. Transmission dynamics and control of Rickettsia rickettsii in populations of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris and Amblyomma sculptum. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 11, n. 6, JUN 2017. (14/12213-1, 13/18046-7)

POLO, GINA; LABRUNA, MARCELO B.; FERREIRA, FERNANDO. Basic reproduction number for the Brazilian Spotted Fever. Journal of Theoretical Biology, v. 458, p. 119-124, DEC 7 2018. (14/12213-1, 13/18046-7, 16/01913-8)

POLO, GINA; ACOSTA, CARLOS MERA; LABRUNA, MARCELO B.; FERREIRA, FERNANDO; BROCKMANN, DIRK. Hosts mobility and spatial spread of Rickettsia rickettsii. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, v. 14, n. 12, DEC 2018. (14/12213-1, 13/18046-7)

POLO, GINA; LABRUNA, MARCELO BAHIA; FERREIRA, FERNANDO. Satellite Hyperspectral Imagery to Support Tick-Borne Infectious Diseases Surveillance. PLoS One, v. 10, n. 11, NOV 24 2015. (14/12213-1)

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

INFANTE, Gina Paola Polo. Modeling and stochastic simulation to study the dynamics of Rickettsia rickettsii in populations of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris and Amblyomma sculptum in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. 2017. Doctoral Thesis - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ/SBD) São Paulo.