Study of the dynamics of autochthonous malaria transmission in Atlantic Forest: Analysis of the vertical distribution of Anopheles cruzii (Diptera: Culicidae) and development of mathematical model for zoonotic transmission.
The Atlantic Forest autochthonous malaria is characterized by low incidence of cases with little or no clinical manifestation and low parasitaemia. It can be caused mainly by Pasmodium vivax and to a lesser extent by P. malariae and P. falciparum (or very similar to these plasmodium) and its main vector is the mosquito Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii, whose immature forms develop in bromeliads. Evidences suggest that malaria could be transmitted by zoonotic form in these areas, since primates of the Cebidae and Atelidae families are found carrying plasmodia genetically very near ones that infect humans and A. cruzii can feed in blood sources both the height of the canopy and near the ground. The Environmental Protection Area Capivari-Monos and the Cantareira State Park, located in São Paulo and border with neighboring municipalities, have a history of autochthonous malaria. In the first area human malária have been reported, in second area is known to occur simian form of these disease. Based on these two areas, this project aims to investigate whether there are spatial-temporal variations in abundance and vertical frequency of A. cruzii and develop a mathematical model in order to predict the dynamics of transmission of vector-human-monkey malaria in the Atlantic Forest. In each of the study areas will be measured monthly, for two years, the abundance and frequency of A. cruzii at ground and canopy level in urban, rural and wild environments. Statistical models will be used to evaluate and predict spatial and temporal differences in vertical frequency of A. cruzii. Field and literature data will be used to develop a mathematical model, based on preexisting models, including the participation of non-human primates in malaria transmission cycle. The expected behavior of zoonotic transmission will be analyzed under different simulated scenarios. It is intended to clarify the influence of A. cruzii behavior on vertical transmission of malaria and whether these disease can be sustained as a zoonosis in the study areas.
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