Association and prediction of life expectancy at birth from environmental performance index

• Grant number: 16/26055-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: June 01, 2017
• End date: December 31, 2017
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: Salvador Boccaletti Ramos
• Grantee: Lorraine Awdrey Garcia
• Host Institution: Pró-Reitoria Adjunta de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação. Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN). Franca , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), list goals and targets that must be addressed to solve global problems of sustainable development. An efficient way to achieve this goal is to find associations between indicators through statistical analyzes. The aim of this study will be to estimate the longevity prediction model of a country based on its environmental performance. To do so, the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) and Yale University's Environmental Performance Index (EPI) databases will be used. The fitted model will be that of a simple linear regression in which the response variable will be the life expectancy at birth and the explanatory variable will be the EPI score. The predictive ability of the model will be evaluated through the coefficient of determination and the technique of statistical learning called validation in which the database will be split in a training subset for parameter estimation and in a test subset to evaluate its predictive performance. It is expected with the results found to verify whether an association between an expectancy of life at birth and the environment exists. If there is an association, it is expected to be able to create a tool that allows for predicting the nation's average life expectancy at birth base on its environmental performance thus aiding scientists and managers. (AU)