The wisdom of crowds: effect of the distribution of the individual guesses

• Grant number: 17/08475-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: August 01, 2017
• End date: July 31, 2018
• Field of knowledge: Interdisciplinary Subjects
• Principal Investigator: José Fernando Fontanari
• Grantee: Davi Arrais Nobre
• Host Institution: Instituto de Física de São Carlos (IFSC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The expression wisdom of crowds or Vox Populi (Galton, 1907) refers to the phenomenon where the collective estimate of certain quantity (e.g., the number of jelly beans in a jar), measured by the median of the individual guesses, can be more accurate than the individual guesses. We don't know of any suitable explanation for the high accuracy of the collective estimate in the case the individual guesses are biased (i.e., the mean of those estimates does not coincide with the true value of the quantity). In this research project, we will study how the probability distribution of the individual estimates, obtained by fitting the histograms of the jelly-beans jar experiment to a family known distributions, impacts the accuracy of the collective estimate. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

NOBRE, DAVI A.; FONTANARI, JOSE F.. Prediction Diversity and Selective Attention in the Wisdom of Crowds. COMPLEX SYSTEMS, v. 29, n. 4, p. 861-875, 2020. (17/23288-0, 17/08475-9)