IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE HIGH PARANAPANEMA BASIN, SP, BRAZIL

• Grant number: 18/14463-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: December 01, 2018
• End date: November 30, 2019
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Rodrigo Maximo Sanchez Roman
• Grantee: Francisca Franciana Sousa Pereira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas (FCA). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Botucatu. Botucatu , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This research project aims the development of an empirical model to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural yields in the Alto Paranapanema basin (ALPA), SP; and also its implications on crop water productivity and energy consumption. The methodology to be used in the research will comprises the formulation of agro-climatic functions for the major crops in the study area using the CropWat software, AquaCrop, and also the model for calculation of the water productivity parameter that was originally developed for the variety of `Natal´ Orange in STELLA environment. Finally, future scenarios (2018-2100) will be modeled and evaluated on the impact of climatic changes on the main herbaceous crops, concomitantly assessing the impact of extreme drought events on productivity, taking data from yields obtained in the same period of drought in the ALPA Basin.