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Quantitative risk analysis of classical swine fever in Ecuador

Grant number: 20/11711-9
Support Opportunities:Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate (Direct)
Start date: November 01, 2020
End date: January 31, 2021
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Veterinary Medicine - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Principal Investigator:Fernando Ferreira
Grantee:Alfredo Javier Acosta Batallas
Supervisor: Depner Klaus
Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
Institution abroad: Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI), Germany  
Associated to the scholarship:17/22912-2 - Evaluation of classical swine fever surveillance system in Ecuador, a risk-based surveillance system proposal, BP.DD

Abstract

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral disease that affects the domestic and wild pigs, considering one of the most important diseases in pork production. Eradication efforts for over 150 years around the world, has resulted in 38 countries with free status specially in North America, Europe, Australia part of South America, among others) (OIE, 2019). In Ecuador the control program and strategies to fight CSF improved in the last ten years, meanwhile there is a lack of relevant base information about the epidemiology of the disease. The governmental plans consider improvement of the sanitary strategies, risk-based surveillance could be useful, however the risk factors associated with the disease have not being fully comprehended nor published.This research project pretends to evaluate in a quantitative approach the risk factors associated with the dissemination of classical swine fever in Ecuador. The analysis will use the epidemiology expertise and methodologies developed at the Federal Research Institute for animal health - Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut in Germany, with particular attention to simulation models used to analyze intervention strategies. Results will be displayed as spacial risk map visualizations and reports that could be used to target interventions by official veterinarians and stakeholders.The analysis will be made using the Ministry of agriculture official databases from the 2017-2019 period, these data sets contain: animal producers registries, CSF surveillance, testing results, vaccination registries, animal transit certificates and supervision registries. Preliminary analysis during the doctoral project, suggests a very low sensitivity of the official surveillance system (CSF). The analysis of the risk factors associated with the presentation of CSF is important and will fill gaps in the comprehension of the natural history of CSF in Ecuador.This project deals with a relevant economic and social problem for Ecuador and by extension to the economies of other countries of south America as: Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Brazil (north and northeast regions; sharing similar productive practices as Ecuador), these countries face similar challenges for implementing risk factors analysis. (AU)

News published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the scholarship:
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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
ACOSTA, ALFREDO; CARDENAS, NICOLAS CESPEDES; IMBACUAN, CRISTIAN; LENTZ, HARTMUT H. K.; DIETZE, KLAAS; AMAKU, MARCOS; BURBANO, ALEXANDRA; GONCALVES, VITOR S. P.; FERREIRA, FERNANDO. Modelling control strategies against classical swine fever: Influence of traders and markets using static and temporal networks in Ecuador. PREVENTIVE VETERINARY MEDICINE, v. 205, p. 12-pg., . (20/11711-9, 17/22912-2)
ACOSTA, ALFREDO; DIETZE, KLAAS; BAQUERO, OSWALDO; OSOWSKI, GERMANA VIZZOTTO; IMBACUAN, CHRISTIAN; BURBANO, ALEXANDRA; FERREIRA, FERNANDO; DEPNER, KLAUS. Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Classical Swine Fever in Ecuador. Viruses-Basel, v. 15, n. 2, p. 17-pg., . (20/11711-9, 17/22912-2)