Exchange rate pass-through for food prices: the Brazilian case 1999-2020

• Grant number: 21/11073-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: March 01, 2022
• End date: December 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Quantitative Methods Applied to Economics
• Principal Investigator: André Luiz Correa
• Grantee: Ana Clara Fernandes Nogueira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências e Letras (FCL). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Araraquara. Araraquara , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The present project aims to estimate and analyze the pass-through coefficient for food goods in the Brazilian economy from july 1999 to December 2020. For this purpose it will investigate the consolidated models in literature, with emphasis on those that embody microeconomics factors and trade theory elements. There will be an extensive bibliographic review and the construction of a large database. Beyond that, it will incorporate the 2008 crisis and the covid-19 effects in order to verify their impact in the pass-through coefficient. The econometric model proposed in this project will be estimated in accordance with the multivariate time series method as the literature proposes (Enders (2009), Morettin e Toloi (2006)) with aid of the programming language R, that has a prominence due to its comprehensive repertoire of statistic functions. There will be performed stationarity and cointegration tests, pointing out the vector autoregression and vector error correction methodology. Furthermore, it is proposed an analysis that contemplates the specificities of the Brazilian food sector, according to the internationalization of goods produced and that considers the historical currency volatility, investigating the transmission channels of the shocks. (AU)