Extreme events of rainfall and temperature in Brazil under a climate change context: statistical properties and future changes

• Grant number: 22/06017-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: April 20, 2023
• End date: April 12, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences
• Principal Investigator: Edson Cezar Wendland
• Grantee: André Simões Ballarin
• Supervisor: Simon Michael Papalexiou
• Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Calgary, Canada
• Associated to the scholarship: 20/08140-0 - Extreme events in a climate change context: characterization based on climate model and nonstationarity, BP.DR

Abstract

An accurate understanding of extreme events and how they will intensify in a climate change context is essential for engineering practices, such as water resources management and designing of hydraulic systems. Despite the importance of these studies, they are still not widespread in the Brazil. In this context, this research internship seeks to advance the characterization of extreme events in Brazil, assessing their main statistical properties and their likelihood to intensify under a climate change scenario by using CMIP6 future simulations. To this end, we will first evaluate the performance of the dataset developed in the first step of this doctoral project, which contains both observed and simulated (historical and future periods) rainfall and temperature data, to describe the main statistical properties of observed extreme events. Two approaches will be considered in this analysis: First, (i) we will evaluate if the simulations of the historical period can reproduce extreme indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCDDI). In sequence, (ii) we will assess the performance of the simulated data in reproducing statistical properties of extreme events, such as their shape and tail properties, using the L-moments approach. Finally, based on CMIP6's historical and future simulations, we will assess future changes in extreme events properties. We expect that this research internship will contribute to a better understanding of extreme events dynamics in the country, helping decision-makers in the characterization of extreme events. (AU)

Scientific publications

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

BALLARIN, ANDRE SIMOES; SONE, JULLIAN SOUZA; GESUALDO, GABRIELA CHIQUITO; SCHWAMBACK, DIMAGHI; REIS, ALAN; ALMAGRO, ANDRE; WENDLAND, EDSON CEZAR. CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil. SCIENTIFIC DATA, v. 10, n. 1, p. 16-pg., 2023-01-20. (19/24292-7, 21/14016-2, 22/06017-1, 15/03806-1, 20/08140-0)

BALLARIN, ANDRE S.; SOUSA MOTA UCHOA, JOSE GESCILAM; DOS SANTOS, MATHEUS S. S.; ALMAGRO, ANDRE; MIRANDA, IANCA P. P.; DA SILVA, PEDRO GUSTAVO C.; DA SILVA, GREICELENE J. J.; GOMES, MARCUS N. N.; WENDLAND, EDSON; OLIVEIRA, PAULO TARSO S.. Brazilian Water Security Threatened by Climate Change and Human Behavior. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, v. 59, n. 7, p. 16-pg., 2023-07-01. (15/03806-1, 20/08140-0, 22/06017-1)