Long-term study in cerrado sensu stricto: understanding climate changes and their effects on plant phenology and reproduction, ecosystem services and their perception by society

• Grant number: 21/12842-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: December 01, 2022
• End date: February 29, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Leonor Patricia Cerdeira Morellato
• Grantee: Amanda Eburneo Martins
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Rio Claro. Rio Claro , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The cerrado is a mega-diverse seasonal tropical vegetation, considered a biodiversity conservation hotspot. Plant communities are structured according to their reproductive strategies, by interacting with local floral visitors and depending on climatic conditions. Climate change is altering flowering patterns in temperate vegetations, affecting interactions and causing ripple effects on pollinators, frugivores, and seedling establishment. These effects also affect the quality of life and human well-being, which are vulnerable due to the decrease in ecosystem services. The cerrado has a seasonal phenology, alternated between dry and wet seasons, being the most species cross-breeding and pollinated by animals. In the cerrado and tropics in general, the effects of climate change on plant phenology and their consequences are still poorly understood, and the synergy with other anthropic actions should enhance the changes foreseen in other regions. As anthropic action is the main responsible for environmental changes, the population awareness at local and regional scales is urgently needed. We will use a unique cerrado sensu stricto long-term phenological monitoring as a case study, to evaluate the reproductive phenology, the reproductive systems of plants, the ecosystem services provided by the community, seeking to establish relationships between these variables and climate change (Sustainable Development Goals - ODS 13 and 15). We will also use citizen science to spread and exchange this knowledge (SDG 4). We will evaluate the plant species reproductive system (dependent and independent of biotic cross-pollination) present in the long-term phenological monitoring of the cerrado, seeking to answer: (i) There are differences between the times of flowering onset, peak and duration of species according to the reproductive system? (ii) Are species dependent on biotic cross-pollination more responsive to climate than non-dependent species? Which flowering variables (onset, peak, duration and timing) are most correlated with climate change? (iii) Considering dependent and independent species of cross-pollination, which ones are suffering negative impacts due to alterations in the time and duration of flowering, observed in the ratio between flowering/fruiting? Is the flowering sequence of species changing over time considering the temperature increase of the last decades? (iv) What are the ecosystem services that plants and their interactions offers in the cerrado area? How are these services related and how can they be affected by climate changes, as analyzed in items (i) to (iii)? (v) Is it possible to implement phenological monitoring in urban green areas through citizen science? The cerrado area has long-term phenological monitoring implemented in 2004 in woody species with a circumference greater than 3 cm above ground height. We will describe the reproductive system of plant species that are not in the literature and will survey the ecosystem services of cerrado plant species. We expect to find a predominance of biotic cross-pollination, with self-incompatible and xenogamous species flowering seasonally in the rainy season transition; possible changes in flowering patterns are expected due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. In addition, we expect that most cerrado species will offer material, regulatory or cultural services to be used sustainably, and that they will be identified both through data collection and through the application of citizen science. Finally, we hope to get volunteer engagement to implement phenological monitoring through citizen science.