Estimation of preference for real estate ownership and speculative bubbles in the sector: A Study Applied to Brazil

• Grant number: 23/02461-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: July 01, 2023
• End date: February 29, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Quantitative Methods Applied to Economics
• Principal Investigator: Wilfredo Fernando Leiva Maldonado
• Grantee: Enrico Campos de Mira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This project proposes a research to analyze the price dynamics and the possibility of a speculative bubble in the real estate market of the three Brazilian cities, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte. For this purpose, the study will use data from the Fipezap survey made available by the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE). In the methodology, the research will use tools from the areas of microeconomics and finance to model the preferences of a representative consumer, incorporating the benefit from the ownership of real estate assets, with the aim of estimating a discount factor and, thus, a fundamental value for the studied series based on the Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) model. In a second movement, the research will use tests for speculative bubbles, namely, tests for explosive bubbles, multiple bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. In such a way that it will allow us to analyze the dynamics of prices in this market and the diagnosis of speculative bubbles, if these are present in the series.

Academic Publications

(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)

MIRA, Enrico Campos de. Detecting bubbles in the Brazilian commercial real estate market: 2012-2023. 2024. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) São Paulo.