Interaction between sea surface temperature interannual variability modes and Madden-Julian Oscillation in southern Africa: observations and model simulations

• Grant number: 22/14424-6
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: October 01, 2023
• End date: September 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Tercio Ambrizzi
• Grantee: Kénedy Cipriano Silvério
• Host Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 17/09659-6 - Interannual variability of the meridional transports across the SAMOC basin-wide array (SAMBAR), AP.TEM
• Associated scholarship(s): 25/00588-5 - Interaction between sea surface temperature Interannual Variability modes and Madden-Julian Oscillation in southern Africa: model simulations, BE.EP.PD

Abstract

Most of southern Africa (SAF), defined here as African subcontinent poleward of 10°S, experiencesgenerally rainfall during austral summer months (October-March) with a seasonal peak thatresembles monsoonlike regime occurring between December and February (DJF) months. However,monsoon rainfall, which is the lifeblood for the key economic sectors (e.g., agriculture andhydroelectric power) in most SAF countries varies over a range of timescales, that results sometimesin either floods or droughts with profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts in SAF. Tobetter understand this rainfall, this research project seeks to improve our knowledge on itsintraseasonal variability (ISV), emphasizing the impacts of either solely Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), or its interaction with selected sea surface temperature (SST) interannual variability modeson monsoon rainfall in SAF, using both statistical and modeling simulations approaches. Buildingupon recently reported importance of convection over tropical South America/Atlantic Ocean inmodulating rainfall in SAF, this project will also try to explore the possible role of this Ocean onmodulating monsoon rainfall in SAF. In doing so, this project besides contributing to improvemonsoon prediction, and hence to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of climate variability inSAF, as well as broadening the discussions under ongoing South Atlantic Meridional OverturningCirculation Basin-wide Array (SAMBAR) project (2017/09659-6), financed by São Paulo ResearchFoundation (FAPESP), it will also contribute to achieving the UN SDG 13. (AU)