BETWEEN BALANCE AND RECOMPOSITION: THE RUSSIAN-US COMPETITION FOR THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

• Grant number: 22/12180-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: November 01, 2023
• End date: July 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Rafael Antonio Duarte Villa
• Grantee: Ana Karolina Morais da Silva
• Host Institution: Instituto de Relações Internacionais (IRI). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated scholarship(s): 24/16308-9 - Territorial progression and military forces involved in the Syrian War (2011-2022): connections between the global and local, BE.EP.DR

Abstract

The general objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the competition between Russia and the United States for the balance of power in the Middle East. We understand that the (re)emergence of the Russian Federation as an expressive pole of power occurred concomitantly with the deepening of its geopolitical competition with the USA throughout the 21st century. Such competition increasingly encompasses the peripheral regions of the international system, transforming them into spaces where the geostrategic confrontation of powers at local and regional levels intertwines with global power struggles. In this sense, we seek to identify how Russian-American competition has affected the balance of power in the Middle East between 2000 and 2022, taking the Syrian War as the main case to be studied - thus, we seek to develop an analysis that relates the global, regional, and local levels. We interpret that the region has two overlapping balances of power in permanent mutual influence: the balance between the global powers, USA and Russia; and the balance between the regional powers - Israel, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt. In turn, the War in Syria represents an important turning point for regional geopolitics and international politics, marking the return of Russia to the epicenter of global political-military disputes and an increase in interstate rivalries between the great powers. The general hypothesis of this research is that the War in Syria represented a break in the balance of power in the Middle East, contributing to the relative US disengagement and the deepening of Russian projection at the regional level. The proposal stands out for exploring the structural effects of a contemporary international phenomenon whose impacts have been scarcely investigated so far.