Análise do avanço da Desertificação e do ponto de não retorno para o Novo Semiárido Brasileiro frente às mudanças climáticas através do modelo ED2.2

• Grant number: 23/06128-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: January 01, 2024
• End date: December 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Carlos Afonso Nobre
• Grantee: Luciana Cristina de Sousa Vieira
• Host Institution: Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Climate projections point to changes in rainfall patterns for some regions of Brazil,especially for the brazilian semi-arid region (sab), indicating that there may be watershortages due to reduced rainfall. Other studies point out that, even without the lack ofrain, the soil condition may not favor the permanence of vegetation, leading some regionsto a desertification process. The issue of deforestation and all its nuances is also importantin the discussion about what can impact the sab the most, leading to the "point of noreturn" in the case of desertification. We do not understand desertification merely as aphenomenon of environmental degradation, but as the confluence of a series of factorsthat converge to form this serious process that has been affecting the semi-arid landscapesof the northeast. Even though the rains continue to be higher than expected for a desertregion, the observed desertification points in sab lost soil biological activity, becomingmore difficult to reverse the situation due to the level of degradation, making the processof resilience of the biome more difficult.In this context, the objective of this research project is to investigate, through modeling,what has been the effect of climate change and land use on the SAB and what is therecovery potential of areas that already show signs of desertification.