Predicting the effects of top predator loss through the analysis of trophic networks

• Grant number: 23/15803-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: February 01, 2024
• End date: December 31, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Theoretical Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Mathias Mistretta Pires
• Grantee: Julia Rossi Mora
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biologia (IB). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The effects of an ecological interaction can influence other species even if they do not directly interact with any of the species involved. Such indirect effects can profoundly affect community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Due to the complexity generated by the multiple interactions and indirect effects on trophic networks, changes in predator diversity can generate non-linear and unintuitive emergent outcomes. In this project, we propose using data from experimental studies that manipulated predator richness in natural microcosms (tank bromeliads) to test whether we can predict the effects of species loss and, more specifically, the loss of top predators through the analysis of ecological networks. In order to do so, we will build interaction networks and analyze their structure and total effects (direct and indirect). Subsequently, we will evaluate whether methods of quantitative network analysis are capable of predicting experimental results. This study may support other theoretical studies by pointing out how we can make the estimates obtained from these quantitative analyses more realistic. Furthermore, there is potential to contribute to protocols for network analysis that can be used in more applied contexts of biodiversity conservation.