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Relationship between stratospheric temperature anomalies and the climate of South and Southeastern Brazil - the case of Hunga Tonga volcano eruption

Grant number: 23/15693-3
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
Start date: February 01, 2024
End date: January 31, 2025
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
Principal Investigator:Luiz Felippe Gozzo
Grantee:Pietra Santos de Sá Lisboa
Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências (FC). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Bauru. Bauru , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The purpose of this research project is to obtain the climatology of meteorological variables from the troposphere and the stratosphere between 1979 and 2022 to relate the stratospheric condition to the South Annular Mode (SAM), and then, find a relation of the climatic conditions between these two atmospheric levels. A case study for this relation will be done for the periods of fall, winter and spring 2022 and summer 2023, looking into the impacts of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption, in early 2022, which caused substantial changes in the composition of the stratospheric layer. This study will use monthly data from the reanalysis ERA5 from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), monthly precipitation data from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data), and SAM index data made available by UNIFEI (Universidade Federal de Itajubá). With the standard anomalies of stratospheric variables, a seasonal index for the temperature at this level will be obtained and, using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Student's t-test, the correlation and the significance between this index and the SAM index will be evaluated. Also, anomaly maps for the geopotential height at 500 hPa and temperature at 2m and the precipitation over the South and Southeast of Brazil will be done to assess the impact of the stratosphere on these variables. Lastly, it will be proposed a possible index for forecasting monthly anomalies for temperature and precipitation in these regions based on the temperature of the stratosphere. The results of this work aim to improve climate forecasts in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil and assist in the study of the atmospheric consequences of extreme and unexpected events, such as the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano.

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VEICULO: TITULO (DATA)
VEICULO: TITULO (DATA)